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International Journal of Drug Policy

○ Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match International Journal of Drug Policy's content profile, based on 12 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Cost-Effectiveness of Expanding Housing Access for People Experiencing Homelessness and Opioid Use Disorder in California

Ling, Y.; Tsung, S.; Alarid-Escudero, F.; Goldhaber-Fiebert, J. D.; Brandeau, M. L.; Reitsma, M. B.

2026-10-19 health policy 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365505 medRxiv
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People experiencing homelessness (PEH) have substantially lower quality-adjusted life expectancy and substantially higher healthcare spending compared to housed populations. California has the largest population of PEH in the United States, and an estimated ten percent of PEH have co-occurring opioid use disorder (OUD). We developed a lifetime, individual-level microsimulation of the 18,928 PEH with OUD in California to evaluate the health and economic effects of expanding access to housing through a Housing First approach, which does not require OUD treatment or abstinence. Increases in permanent housing and shelter access were based on Los Angeles County's Measure A goals, and we accounted for both housing and healthcare costs. Expanding housing access increased mean age at death by 0.34 years, reduced fatal overdoses for the cohort by 39, and produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $31,083 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, well below conventional willingness-to-pay thresholds. We provide evidence that housing is a high-value health intervention for PEH with OUD in California. Policymakers should support Housing First programs as part of integrated responses to the intertwined crises of homelessness and opioid use.

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Balancing Relapse Risk and Agency in Buprenorphine-naloxone Treatment: A Qualitative Needs Assessment to Inform Patient-Centered Care

Reese, T.; Shah, M. V.; Wright, A.; Matheny, M. E.; Marcovitz, D. E.; Kast, K. A.; Bridges, J.; Tindle, H.; von Horn, A.; Audet, C.

2026-08-23 addiction medicine 10.64898/2026.08.21.26360804 medRxiv
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Objectives Outpatient buprenorphine-naltrexone (bup-nx) treatment reduces overdose risk, yet many patients still return to use or disengage from treatment. We sought to understand how patients and prescribers experience and manage relapse risk, monitoring, and treatment agency in routine bup-nx treatment to identify gaps in current practice. Methods We conducted a qualitative needs assessment using semi structured, critical incident interviews with patients receiving outpatient bup-nx and prescribers who manage bup-nx treatment. Interviews examined situations involving relapse risk and empowerment in treatment decisions. We structured data collection and analysis using the Theoretical Domains Framework and COM B model to characterize determinants. Transcripts were coded deductively and inductively until code level saturation was reached. Results Participants (9 patients, 8 prescribers) described nine treatment needs mapped to the Capability, Opportunity, and Motivation components of the COM B model. These themes highlighted how patient agency in bup-nx treatment was constrained by physiologic and emotional states, with withdrawal, craving, pain, and distress often overriding longer term goals. Relapse vulnerability was experienced as dynamic and intensifying between visits, while clinical detection remained anchored to visit bound assessments, urine drug testing, refill patterns, and crisis driven contact, creating blind spots. Structural friction (pharmacy rules, insurance disruptions, transportation and housing instability), stigma from family and recovery communities, and motivational processes tied to fluctuating readiness and trust in monitoring further shaped engagement, disclosure, and dosing decisions; the same monitoring tools could either support honest disclosure or provoke concealment when perceived as punitive. Conclusions Relapse risk and agency in bup-nx treatment are negotiated as dynamic processes within structurally constrained and trust sensitive systems. Addressing the identified capability, opportunity, and motivation gaps will require patient centered, trust preserving approaches to monitoring and shared decision making.

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Forecasting U.S. 12-Month-Ending Overdose Death Counts: Multi-Model National and Regional Projections

Alhassan, F.; Karami, H.; Bohler, R.; Fung, I. C.-H.; Mamelund, S.-E.; Lee, S.; Peterson, E.; Chowell, G.

2026-08-05 addiction medicine 10.64898/2026.08.03.26359533 medRxiv
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Aims: To assess whether recent declines in U.S. rolling 12-month-ending drug overdose death counts are projected to continue, compare the retrospective performance of short-term forecasting models, and estimate national and regional 12-month changes. Design: Comparative time-series forecasting study with a retrospective March 2025-February 2026 forecast evaluation and subsequent 12-month-ahead projections through February 2027. Setting: United States and four U.S. Census regions: Northeast, Midwest, South, and West. Cases: Aggregate drug overdose deaths reported in the National Center for Health Statistics Vital Statistics Rapid Release system (VSRR) and identified using ICD-10 underlying cause-of-death codes X40-X44, X60-X64, X85, and Y10-Y14. Measurements: The primary outcome was the monthly series of rolling 12-month-ending overdose deaths. Candidate models included ARIMA, generalized additive models, Prophet, and AICc-ranked n-sub-epidemic models. Models were calibrated using January 2020-February 2025 data and evaluated against March 2025-February 2026 observations using mean absolute error, mean squared error, empirical 95% prediction interval coverage, and weighted interval score (WIS). Individual models were ranked by retrospective WIS, and normalized inverse-WIS weights were used to construct ensembles from the top-ranked models. Final forecasts were generated for March 2026-February 2027 after recalibrating models using January 2020-February 2026 data. Results: Retrospective WIS performance differed geographically: GAM performed best nationally and in the Midwest and West, the leading n-sub-epidemic model in the Northeast, and ARIMA in the South. Median forecasts from all individual models and ensembles projected declines from February 2026 to February 2027 nationally and in each region, although prediction intervals varied substantially. Individual national median projections ranged from declines of 12.8% to 25.8%, while weighted-ensemble median projections indicated declines of 20.5% to 21.7%. Projected weighted-ensemble declines were larger in the Northeast (25.4%-30.0%) and Midwest (24.3%-26.3%) than in the South (16.6%-19.5%) and West (18.0%-21.8%). Summary: Ensemble forecasts of the reported provisional VSRR series were consistent with continued declines in rolling annual overdose death counts nationally and across U.S. Census regions. The projected magnitude of decline differed by region and model specification. Because the forecasts used provisional rolling 12-month-ending counts, they should be interpreted as surveillance projections rather than exact monthly mortality predictions.

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Overdose-related communication in Connecticut: reported receipt, perceived utility, and responses among overdose prevention and response professionals

Ram, A.; Altice, F. L.

2026-10-06 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.10.01.26363949 medRxiv
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Background Timely overdose response depends not only on surveillance systems that detect overdose clusters, but also on communication pathways that deliver actionable information to the professionals positioned to respond. Understanding which overdose-related communications are received, perceived as useful, and translated into action is essential for improving overdose prevention and response infrastructure. Objective We assessed which overdose-related communication channels professionals reported receiving, which they perceived as most helpful, how organizations reported responding to overdoses or overdose clusters, and whether these patterns differed by professional role, county, and funding source. Methods We conducted an exploratory descriptive survey in 2024 using a convenience sample of professionals across Connecticut whose jobs involved overdose prevention or response (N=149). Using this survey data, we summarized reported receipt and perceived utility of overdose-related communication channels, organizational response actions, and internal receipt of Connecticut Department of Public Health overdose alerts. Results were stratified descriptively by professional role, county, and funding source. We interpreted findings using a public health communication-to-action cascade focused on signal detection, communication receipt, internal dissemination, perceived utility, and response action. Results Reported communication receipt and perceived utility differed most clearly by professional role. Peer information sharing was the most commonly reported communication source and was frequently perceived as helpful, but respondents who reported receiving formal channels such as state alerts, local alerts, or platform-based information often identified those channels as most helpful. Internal receipt of Connecticut Department of Public Health overdose alerts also varied by role. SSPs/substance use treatment programs and first responders more often reported outreach to people who use drugs, whereas government and health district respondents reported a more even mix of public communication and outreach activities. Conclusions Overdose-related communication in Connecticut appears role-dependent and unevenly distributed. Informal peer networks are widely used and perceived as helpful, while formal alert systems may require improvements to reach and actionability. Practical improvements include opt-in communication pathways tailored to professional roles, clearer access points for state and local alerts, internal dissemination protocols that specify who should receive which alerts, and alert-to-action playbooks that connect specific alert types to recommended response steps.

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Who Is Reached by Supervised Psilocybin Services? Oregon Services Versus National Psilocybin Use

Costa, G. P. A.; Riggione, C.; Pittenger, C.; De Aquino, J. P.

2026-09-07 addiction medicine 10.64898/2026.09.03.26362170 medRxiv
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Supervised psilocybin services are expanding across the United States, yet how individuals accessing these programs compare with those using psilocybin in the general population is unknown. We conducted a cross-sectional descriptive comparison of Oregon Psilocybin Services (OPS) data from licensed service centers in 2025 (5,935 encounters) and the 2024 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) public-use file (1,822 of 47,299 adults reporting past-year psilocybin use), examining demographics, reasons for use, self-reported disability, and past-year psychiatric conditions and treatment. OPS clients were predominantly female (58.2%) and aged 35 or older (82.1%), whereas adults reporting psilocybin use nationally were predominantly male (64.0%) and younger than 35 (56.7%). Racial and ethnic minority representation was narrower in Oregon (0.9% Black, 2.5% Hispanic vs. 5.4% and 14.3% nationally). OPS clients reported higher incomes (58.5% earning >$95,000) and primarily cited wellness; self-reported disability was uncommon. Adults using psilocybin nationally had high past-year rates of major depressive episode (22.7%), serious psychological distress (36.8%), substance use disorder (61.7%), and mental health treatment receipt (42.9%). Oregon's open-access model selects higher-income, clinically stable, wellness-oriented adults, while millions with psychiatric and substance-use burden use psilocybin outside supervised channels; its safety and utilization data should not be generalized.

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Drug decriminalization and population mental distress: evidence from Oregon and Washington

Allegrini, F.; Sonno, T.

2026-08-11 addiction medicine 10.64898/2026.08.10.26360079 medRxiv
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In February 2021, Oregon became the first US state to decriminalize possession of small amounts of all commonly used illicit drugs (Measure 110); twenty-four days later, Washington's Supreme Court Blake ruling produced a weaker, shorter-lived decriminalization. Evaluations of these policy periods have focused on overdose deaths, with contested results; their association with the mental health of the general population is unknown. Using surveillance data on 6.3 million adult interviews (2011-2024) and synthetic control methods with permutation inference, we find frequent mental distress an estimated 2.15 percentage points higher in Oregon than in its synthetic counterfactual (largest positive gap among 45 jurisdictions; two-sided rank 2/45, p = 0.044, though not significant under the alternative fit-normalized statistic), with directionally consistent estimates in Washington and a joint test on the pair at p = 0.015. The increase concentrates in self-reported distress, among women and young adults, and is not mirrored in diagnoses, police-recorded partner violence or suicide.

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Sex Differences in Primary Care Contacts and Recurrent Overdose Risk in British Columbia

Palis, H.; Vincent, J.

2026-10-13 addiction medicine 10.64898/2026.10.09.26365159 medRxiv
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Background: Risk of recurrent overdose is elevated following non-fatal overdose (NFOD) survival; timely interventions may reduce this risk. The specific role of mental health care in reducing recurrence is relatively underexplored, and post-overdose care has seldom been examined for sex differences. This study examined sex differences in the association between mental health-related primary care contacts following NFOD and overdose recurrence risk among people in British Columbia (BC) with a documented depression diagnosis history. Methods: This was a nested case-control study using linked administrative health data from the Provincial Health Services Authority Platform for Analytics and Data. The source cohort (n=7,022) comprised BC residents with a history of a documented depression diagnosis between 2010-2014 and at least one NFOD between 2015-2024. Cases experienced a recurrent overdose within one year of their index overdose; controls were selected using incidence density sampling. Exposures were the presence and number of mental health related primary care contacts in the 30- or 90-day window following the index overdose. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) and confidence intervals (CI), overall and by sex. Secondary analyses were conducted using psychiatrist contacts. Results: Mental-health related primary care contact rates were low, with only 16.3% and 28.1% of the cohort with any contact within 30 and 90 days, respectively. Mental health-related primary care contacts were more strongly associated with reduced recurrence risk in the 30-day window (any contact aIRR: 0.57 [CI: 0.46-0.71]) than in the 90-day window (aIRR: 0.78 [CI: 0.65-0.94]). Any contact within 30 days was more strongly associated with lower recurrence risk among males (aIRR: 0.53 [CI: 0.39-0.72]) than among females (aIRR: 0.67 [CI: 0.50-0.91]), whereas associations between the number of contacts and recurrence risk were similar for males and females. Any psychiatrist contact within 30 days was more strongly associated with lower recurrence risk among females (aIRR: 0.50 [CI: 0.34-0.73]) than males (aIRR: 0.70 [0.52-0.95]). Discussion: Mental health-related care contacts shortly following NFOD were associated with lower overdose recurrence risk among people with a documented depression diagnosis history, with modest sex differences that varied by provider type. Low rates of contacts overall suggest gaps in access to care following NFOD, particularly among males. Further research on sex differences in post-overdose care are warranted.

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A Measurement-Based Care Strategy for Buprenorphine-Naloxone Treatment (Bup-MBC): Development of an EHR-Integrated Intervention

Reese, T.; Audet, C.; Ancker, J.; Wright, A.; Marcovitz, D.; Kast, K. A.; Bridges, J.; Tindle, H.; Shah, M.; von Horn, A.; Matheny, M. E.

2026-09-01 addiction medicine 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361539 medRxiv
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Introduction: Risk of recurrent opioid use during buprenorphine-naloxone (bup-nx) treatment is dynamic and remains elevated after initiation, with vulnerability shaped in part by treatment intensity and gaps between visits, yet routine outpatient care relies on episodic encounters and retrospective data. This mismatch can delay recognition of emerging instability and limit timely treatment adjustments. This paper reports the development and specification of an intervention strategy to address this mismatch. Methods: We used a structured, multi-phase design process to specify and configure a measurement-based care (MBC) strategy for bup-nx treatment (Bup-MBC) in outpatient addiction clinics through three phases: (1) a systematic review of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) for substance use treatment; (2) a qualitative needs assessment using the Theoretical Domains Framework and COM-B (Capability, Opportunity, Motivation-Behavior) model to identify gaps in risk monitoring, agency, and trust; and (3) iterative co-design with multidisciplinary clinicians to refine workflow fit and trust-preserving use of data. Patients informed item and feedback content during the needs assessment but did not participate in the co-design cycles. Results: Bup-MBC integrates (1) brief between-visit PROMs (e.g., withdrawal, craving, adherence); (2) immediate non-punitive patient feedback; (3) clinician-facing summaries and non-directive prompts in the electronic health record (EHR); and (4) an opt-in between-visit outreach pathway with predefined safety triggers, all configured within existing EHR and patient portal infrastructure. It targets patient and clinician capability to recognize changes in risk, opportunity for action through structured monitoring and visit preparation, and trust and agency through non-punitive communication, without adding substantial burden. The full measure set, severity bands, and question-to-action map are provided as supplementary material. Key trade-offs included prioritizing single-item measures for feasibility, balancing opt-in outreach with safety overrides, and assuming routine clinician use of summaries. Conclusion: This development study specifies an EHR-integrated MBC strategy for outpatient bup-nx treatment. As single-center design work with co-design limited to clinicians and delivery contingent on portal or text-message access, its outputs are hypotheses about mechanism and fit rather than demonstrated effects. Feasibility studies are needed to evaluate uptake, acceptability, workflow fit, and effects on treatment.

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Prenatal and postpartum tobacco use in adolescents and young adults: a qualitative study

Rai, A.; Chou, S.; Sanfacon, A.; Boss, N.; Lehman, D.; Chang, J. C.; De Genna, N. M.

2026-09-12 addiction medicine 10.64898/2026.09.10.26362664 medRxiv
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Background: Younger obstetric patients are more likely to use combustible tobacco products and/or cannabis during pregnancy and, among those who quit, are more likely to relapse in the postpartum. Few studies have explored the context of prenatal tobacco use in this population from the narratives and perspectives of these patients. We performed a qualitative interview study of young pregnant people, their beliefs, attitudes, reasons for nicotine and tobacco use, and tobacco cessation experiences to address this gap. Methods: Pregnant patients under the age of 22 were recruited from prenatal clinics in Pittsburgh for a cohort study. A subsample of participants were invited to participate in semi-structured interviews about tobacco and cannabis use. Two coders independently coded all transcripts using an open, inductive approach. The research team then used a qualitative description approach to perform thematic analysis by reviewing high frequency codes, identifying patterns and categories, and identifying themes. Results: We conducted 57 interviews with 46 participants between the ages of 17-23 (M = 19.7 years). Most (n=33) identified as Black/African American, 9 as White, and 4 as Biracial. Thirty-eight were interviewed while pregnant (n=13 1st trimester, n=18 2nd trimester, n=12, 3rd trimester) and 14 were interviewed in the postpartum. We identified the following themes: 1) participants recognized tobacco to be harmful for both the pregnant individual and the fetus; 2) they perceived tobacco use to be more harmful than cannabis use, and co-use to be more harmful than cannabis use alone; 3) peer and social influences contributed to tobacco initiation but also provided support for tobacco cessation; 4) they preferred to reduce or stop tobacco use through their own strategies rather than relying on clinicians or cessation aids; and 5) postpartum relapse was attributed to difficulty of dual transition into adulthood and parenthood. Conclusion: While several themes - knowledge about the harms of tobacco use, greater perceived risk for tobacco compared to cannabis use, and the importance of peer and social support for tobacco cessation efforts - corroborate findings from studies with older pregnant patients, our study highlights some unique stressors contributing to postpartum relapse to combustible tobacco use in younger individuals and the need for better connection with clinical services supporting tobacco cessation.

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Half of alcohol, drug, and self-harm presentations cannot be identified in coded emergency department data: a diagnostic accuracy study of a large language model

Humphries, C.; Brett, J.; Gruber, F.; James, E.; McKendrick, T. I.; McNairn, K. C.; Miell, A.; O'Brien, R.; Rahman, F.; Schölin, L.; Stewart, M.; Casey, A.

2026-08-31 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361443 medRxiv
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Objective To measure the accuracy of clinical coding, clinician review, and a locally deployed large language model (LLM) in identifying alcohol, drug, and self-harm involvement in emergency department (ED) attendances, and quantify prevalence. Design Two-phase diagnostic accuracy study. In a validation week, the identification strategies were assessed against a conflict-adjudicated reference standard (n=2,256); the LLM was then applied to n=105,096 annual attendances at the same site. Setting UK Type 1 Emergency Department treating patients [&ge;]16yrs. Main outcome measures Prevalence quantification compared with the reference standard; sensitivity, specificity, and balanced accuracy of each strategy; monthly identification rates and adjusted annual prevalence. Results The reference standard identified 12.1% of attendances as involving alcohol, drugs, or self-harm (coding 6.0%; clinician 10.0%, LLM 15.6%). LLM balanced accuracy matched or outperformed clinician review in all three domains (alcohol 0.942 v 0.930, p=0.635; drug 0.959 v 0.791, p<0.001; self-harm 0.982 v 0.908, p=0.004). Coding recorded 1.07 domains per identified patient against 1.32 in the reference standard. Adjusted annual prevalence corresponded to 12,890 domain involvements per year not identifiable in coded data. Subdomain classification found at least 81.6% of self-harm attendances required medical assessment for injury or overdose before psychiatric review. Conclusions Clinical coding identified fewer than half of presentations involving alcohol, drugs, and self-harm and rarely captured co-occurring domains; under-recording was present across a full year. A locally deployed LLM generated more complete structured data from existing clinical text within NHS infrastructure, at a scale which is not feasible for manual review.

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Exploring possible point-of-sale restrictions for vapes and nicotine pouches: cross-sectional surveys with adults and adolescents in the UK

MacKintosh, A. M.; Best, C.; Moodie, C.; Angus, K.; Alexandrou, G.; Ford, A.

2026-09-29 health policy 10.64898/2026.09.23.26363788 medRxiv
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Introduction Within the Tobacco and Vapes Act 2026, the UK Government is considering restricting retail displays of vaping and other nicotine products to discourage youth uptake. We explored how adult nicotine users and adolescents responded to conventional and restricted displays. Methods Two UK-wide cross-sectional online surveys were conducted April-June 2026, with current and former adult nicotine users (n=2,851), and adolescents (11-17 years; n=2,123). Participants rated images of vape and nicotine pouch point-of-sale (POS) displays (two conventional, two restricted) across 10 items. Other measures included demographics, smoking/vaping/nicotine pouch use, vaping susceptibility, and product choice. Results Ratings of two conventional POS images were consistently favourable. Two restricted POS images were almost exclusively rated unfavourably. GEE analyses, controlling for demographics and behaviour, indicated that a display with standardised white packs (versus a conventional display) consistently had lower odds of favourable ratings (adults range:0.13-0.31; adolescents range:0.11-0.32). A fully covered display had even lower odds of favourable ratings on all items (adults range:0.06-0.19; adolescents range:0.05-0.10). Presented with hypothetical restricted displays, most adults using nicotine remained consistent with their product choice. Favourable ratings of conventional displays were positively associated with adolescents' vaping susceptibility. Those favourably rating a large, branded display were more likely to be susceptible than those giving unfavourable/neutral ratings (AOR=2.73, 95%CI [2.16-3.45] p<0.001). No association was found between favourable ratings of restricted displays and susceptibility. Conclusion Restricting POS displays could reduce positive messaging around vaping and adolescent susceptibility. The potential impact of restrictions on adult users' perceptions of harm and accessibility should be considered.

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Markov computational modeling to predict opioid vs. money choice and behavioral effort in regular heroin users

Jhand, A. S.; Greenwald, M. K.

2026-08-21 addiction medicine 10.64898/2026.08.18.26360767 medRxiv
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Quantifying decision-making in experimental settings that mimic real-world conditions may provide insights into mechanisms underlying addiction. This study developed a computational model of opioid-seeking behavior. Out-of-treatment persons who regularly used heroin were stabilized on buprenorphine 8mg/day to minimize opioid withdrawal. Across programmatically-linked studies, three experimental conditions presented differing money vs. opioid unit amounts that could be earned per trial ($2 vs. 1-mg hydromorphone, n=23; $2 vs. 2-mg hydromorphone, n=36; $4 vs. 2-mg hydromorphone, n=24), controlling other factors. Progressive ratio schedules on each choice option required increasing effort across trials to earn the same amount. Trial-level outcomes were decision latency and choice on each option, and session-level outcomes were drug-money latency and breakpoint difference scores. A Markov computational model was used to predict the probability of choosing the same option as the previous trial (vs. switching). Model inputs included effort discrepancy (between earning the same vs. other commodity on next choice) and logarithm of the ratio of decisional speed (current vs. previous choice). Participants who more rapidly chose hydromorphone vs. money made more consecutive drug choices and expended greater effort earning hydromorphone. First-trial hydromorphone choice predicted continued effortful opioid-seeking. Participants repeated choices on 80% of trials; the model accurately predicted stick vs. switch behavior on 93% of trials. Participants typically repeated choices when faced with lower effort discrepancies and higher hydromorphone dose (2-mg vs. 1-mg). In conclusion, a Markov computational model accurately predicted effortful behavior in a choice paradigm that mimics real-world decisions between opioid and nondrug reinforcers.

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Health system transitions and engagement for patients with opioid use disorder

Niess, M.; Kennedy, K.; Glunt, V.; Burrows, J.; Goldstein, B.; Brucker, A.; Mhina, C.; Staton, C.; Pignone, M.

2026-09-24 emergency medicine 10.64898/2026.09.22.26363750 medRxiv
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Abstract: Background: Opioid Use Disorder (OUD) imposes a rising mortality and health system burden, with opioid related deaths increasing from 8,400 in 2000 to 110,037 in 2023. Medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) reduce mortality and morbidity, yet only 25.1% of people with OUD are treated with these medications, and inpatient MOUD initiation is inconsistent. Inpatient and Emergency Department (ED) treatment initiation and connection to outpatient care is suboptimal, missing critical opportunities to engage at-risk populations during acute care visits. Our goals were to determine the proportion of patients with OUD treated with MOUD during a hospital/ED stay, and the proportion successfully connected to outpatient care. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included patients 18 years or older with an OUD diagnosis at Duke University Hospital and Duke Regional Hospital (7/1/2023 to 12/31/2025) who had an inpatient or ED encounter with an associated OUD diagnosis code. Primary outcomes were buprenorphine at discharge, 30-day acute care return, and 30 day outpatient follow up. Adjusted modified Poisson regression models with cluster robust standard errors evaluated associations with age, sex, race/ethnicity, insurance, area deprivation index, encounter type, and comorbidity score. Results: Of 5,390 patients with OUD, 42.1% (2,267) had an acute care encounter, generating 3,893 encounters. Neither buprenorphine nor methadone was prescribed at discharge for 46.0% of encounters. Acute care return occurred in 33.6% and outpatient follow up in 32.2% of encounters within 30 days; only 7.4% of follow-ups included a buprenorphine prescription. ED encounters had lower discharge prescribing than inpatient encounters (RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.61,0.86). Black patients had higher 30 day acute care return than White patients (RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.02,1.30) Conclusions: Acute care encounters represent repeated, missed opportunities for MOUD initiation. Disparities were concentrated in post-discharge return and follow up rather than at initial prescribing, and attrition occurred at each transition along the screening-treatment-referral pathway.

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A Review of Suicide-Related Risks through Propensity Score Methods using the Maryland Suicide Data Warehouse

Kitchen, C.; Kush, J.; Zirikly, A.; Belouali, A.; Nestadt, P.; Wilcox, H.; Kharrazi, H.

2026-10-21 health informatics 10.64898/2026.10.19.26364526 medRxiv
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Objective A diversity of approaches and cohorts have been published in research literature for suicide risk estimation, leading to some uncertainty around which factors and conditions are most strongly contributing to risk. Methods exist for weighting estimates by propensity score, removing simplifying the interpretation of model effects. Few studies have explored the use of these tools to assess when the effect of certain factors is uncertain or inconsistent. Method A mix of 1,001,737 suicide decedents and living patients were evaluated for suicide risk, relying on a subset of commonly identified factors: demographics, psychiatric conditions, substance use disorders, and social needs. Care utilization patterns were then assessed controlling for these factors in a hospital care setting. Four methods were considered for controlling multivariate confounding of odds predicting death by suicide: multivariate logistic regression, 1-to-1 sample matching, inverse propensity weighting (IPTW), and entropy balancing (EBAL). Results Test statistics showed suicide decedents were much more likely to have various psychiatric and substance use diagnoses, social needs and more likely to heightened care utilization across sampling intervals. Greater utilization was found close to date of death. Effect sizes after IPTW and EBAL weighting were also generally greater than would have been documented by regression alone. Conclusions Propensity weighting is a useful alternative to exploring nuanced effects, especially when the direction and strength of an association differ from traditional statistics. By weighting, the overall imbalance of cases remains consistent and effect terms might reflect more nuanced associations than regression or sample matching alone.

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Examining the Appeal of Cigarette Filters: An Online Randomised Experiment Among Adults in Great Britain

East, K.; Cheeseman, H.; Taylor, E. V.

2026-09-20 health policy 10.64898/2026.09.17.26363313 medRxiv
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Background and aims. Cigarette filters are present in almost all cigarettes sold globally, despite providing no health protection and contributing substantially to environmental pollution. Filters may also increase cigarette appeal and reinforce misperceptions of reduced harm. This study aimed to examine the impact of cigarette filters on cigarette appeal and perceptions of health and environmental harms among adults in Great Britain. Design. Online between-subject randomised experiment embedded within a nationally representative survey. Setting. Great Britain, May 2026. Participants. Adults aged 18+ years, recruited through the YouGov Social Omnibus survey (n=3961). Subgroup analyses were conducted among people who currently smoked (n=499) and people who smoked daily (n=270). Intervention and comparator. Participants were randomised to view images of cigarettes either without filters (intervention) or with filters (conventional cigarettes; comparator). Measurements. The primary outcome was selecting one of the displayed cigarettes to smoke vs. selecting none. Secondary outcomes were perceptions that the cigarette was extremely harmful to health and extremely harmful to the environment. Logistic regression models were used, adjusting for age, sex and smoking status. Results. There was strong evidence to suggest that participants who viewed cigarettes without filters had markedly lower odds of choosing a cigarette to smoke than those who viewed cigarettes with filters (19.1% vs. 28.1%; adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=0.46 [95% confidence interval [CI]=0.38-0.55], p<.001). Cigarettes without filters also had higher odds of being perceived as extremely harmful to health (65.2% vs. 59.9%; AOR=1.26 [1.10-1.45], p=.001). Evidence was insufficient to conclude a difference between conditions in perceiving cigarettes as extremely harmful to the environment (41.8% vs. 44.3%; AOR=0.89 [0.78-1.01], p=.074). Findings were similar among people who currently smoke, with participants who viewed cigarettes without (vs. with) filters having markedly lower odds of choosing a cigarette (67.4% vs. 94.2%; AOR=0.12 [0.06-0.22], p<.001). These findings were also similar among people who smoke daily (70.7% vs. 94.8%; AOR=0.14, 95% CI=0.06-0.36, p<0.001). However, evidence was insufficient to conclude differences in perceived health harms between conditions among people who smoke currently (29.7% vs. 27.8%; p=.588) or daily (32.2% vs. 28.6%; p=.324). Summary. Removing cigarette filters reduced the appeal of cigarettes among the general population and people who smoke. Removing filters also increased perceptions of health harms in the general population. Given that cigarette filters provide no health protection and contribute to environmental pollution, policies that regulate or prohibit filters may support public health and environmental goals.

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Disability, Chronic Pain, and Opioid Use Disorder Treatment Disparities: A National Cohort Analysis from the All of Us Research Program

Williams, J.; Osweiler, B. W.; Siriprakorn, J. P.; Marotta, P. L.

2026-08-11 addiction medicine 10.64898/2026.08.09.26359632 medRxiv
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Background: People with disabilities (PWD) represent over one-quarter of the US population and disproportionately experience chronic pain, yet limited research explores disparities they face in opioid use disorder (OUD) treatment. Objective: To examine disparities across disability status regarding opioid use disorder (OUD)-related outcomes and understand how chronic pain interacts with these associations. Methods: We completed a cross-sectional, secondary analysis of data from the All of Us Research Program, including 370,722 adults with electronic health record data available between January 2021-September 2023. We identified prevalence of disability, chronic pain, OUD, receipt of medications for OUD (MOUD), and OUD remission using diagnostic codes. We performed interaction analyses between chronic pain, disability subtype, and MOUD receipt in affecting OUD outcomes. Results: OUD was more common among individuals with physical (aOR: 2.74, 95% CI: 2.54-2.95), cognitive (2.19, 1.94-2.45), and multiple disabilities (2.43, 2.19-2.68), compared to those without disabilities. Among patients with OUD, those with physical disabilities were less likely to receive MOUD (0.81, 0.69-0.94). Compared to those without disabilities, chronic pain was associated with higher probabilities of OUD diagnosis and lower probabilities of MOUD and OUD remission across all subjects. These relationships were stronger for OUD diagnosis in cognitive disabilities, MOUD in multiple disabilities, and OUD remission in physical disabilities. Conclusions: Disability and chronic pain jointly shape disparities in OUD treatment and underscore the urgent need for care models that integrate OUD treatment with pain management and address the unique access challenges faced by people with disabilities.

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The Effects of Social Isolation, Loneliness, and Nicotine Product Use: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Evidence Update

Pascoe, R.; Saliba, C.; Kundu, A.; Hoque, S.; Milory, A.; Schwartz, R.; Chaiton, M.

2026-08-10 addiction medicine 10.64898/2026.08.07.26359989 medRxiv
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Background: Loneliness and social isolation may contribute to tobacco and nicotine use, but existing studies have been inconsistent. This systematic review and meta-analysis examined these associations among adults amid the evolving nicotine product landscape. Methods: A systematic search of PubMed, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and CINAHL identified peer-reviewed quantitative studies published between 2014 and 2025 searched in February-April 2026. Eligible studies included adults aged [&ge;]18 years examining loneliness and/or social isolation in relation to smoking or nicotine use. Two reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias (using the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute risk of bias tool). Random effects meta-analyses were conducted to estimate pooled odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: 22 studies involving 273,954 participants met inclusion criteria, and 14 studies were included in the meta-analysis. A majority of the studies had low risk of bias. Meta-analysis findings showed that social isolation or loneliness was associated with significantly higher odds of nicotine product use (OR 1.84, 95% CI 1.48-2.29). Although no statistically significant association of nicotine product use and social isolation or loneliness (OR 1.35, 95% CI 0.72-2.53), some studies suggested bidirectional relationships, with smoking contributing to reduced social support and greater isolation over time. Sensitivity analysis showed the robustness of the meta-analysis findings. Subgroup analysis found no statistically significant differences were seen between subgroups defined by type of nicotine product, age groups, social isolation vs loneliness, measures of nicotine use behaviours and pre- vs post- COVID-19 pandemic period in the meta-regression. Limitations of included studies and analysis are discussed. Conclusions: Loneliness and social isolation are significant psychosocial correlates of nicotine product use. Cessation interventions may benefit from integrating social support and mental health strategies alongside traditional nicotine dependence treatment.

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A Growing Burden, a Persistent Gap: Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome Education and Emergency Department Trends in Michigans Legal Cannabis Market

Lorbeer, E. R.; Bronson, N.; Burgard, L. A.; Engle, M. E.; Randhawa, D. S.; Sotiroff, P. V.; Walker, H. R.; Zhu, H.; Mastenbrook, J. D.

2026-10-14 public and global health 10.64898/2026.10.09.26365113 medRxiv
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Background: Since Michigan's legalization of recreational adult-use cannabis in December 2018, health care providers in the city of Kalamazoo, Michigan, have informally observed an increase in cannabinoid hyperemesis syndrome (CHS) presentations, although the extent of this increase has not been formally characterized locally. CHS is frequently underrecognized and misdiagnosed, often resulting in repeated emergency department (ED) visits and substantial diagnostic costs before a diagnosis is reached. Despite this clinical and financial burden, it is unclear whether consumers are adequately informed of this risk through point-of-sale or public health resources. Methods: A cross-sectional environmental scan was conducted to identify publicly available educational content about CHS on the websites of licensed cannabis retailers in Kalamazoo and relevant public health agencies. Provisioning centers and public health websites were screened using a structured coding rubric developed specifically for the environmental scan to assess the presence, depth, web page placement, and intended audience of CHS-related content. Additionally, the electronic medical records at a local teaching hospital in Kalamazoo were queried to identify ED visits with a primary diagnosis of CHS from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2025. Results: Before the legalization of marijuana, the hospital recorded six ED encounters with the primary diagnosis of CHS between January 2010 and November 2018, and 274 ED encounters between December 2018 and December 2025 (mean age: 29 years; 157 females, 123 males). The incidence rate of CHS-related ED encounters was 57.2 times higher during the post-legalization period than during the pre-legalization period (95% CI, 26.0-157.3; exact Poisson rate-ratio test, p < 0.0001). Among the licensed Kalamazoo provisioning centers reviewed, only one mentioned CHS as a warning but did not describe symptoms or offer medical guidance. CHS content was not identified on the websites of the state or local health departments. Conclusion: Despite the growing clinical concern regarding CHS, consumer-facing educational resources remain scarce. Although this study cannot establish a causal relationship between the availability of CHS-related educational content and the observed increase in ED encounters following legalization, it identifies a substantial lack of CHS-specific warnings in the evaluated consumer-facing resources. Given the clinical and potential economic burden associated with delayed CHS recognition, we recommend that Michigans existing point-of-sale pamphlet requirement be amended to include CHS-specific warning language.

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Patterns and correlates of alcohol and other substance use among adults in two communities in Cape Town: a cross-sectional

Haas, A. D.; Tlali, M.; Joska, J.; van den Heuvel, L. L.; Rabie, S.; Williams, N.; Maniwe, O.; Khan, N.; Madolo, L.; Chinogurei, C.; Mothiba, C.; Mountford, T.; Seedat, S.; Orrell, C.; Adorjan, K.; Davies, M.-A.; Johnson, L.; Kassanjee, R.

2026-10-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.10.12.26365289 medRxiv
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Background We aimed to characterize substance use patterns, and their correlates, among adults with and without HIV at two healthcare facilities in Cape Town, South Africa. Methods We recruited adults with and without HIV from two primary healthcare facilities. We assessed alcohol use with the AUDIT-C and other substance use with the WHO-ASSIST questionnaires. We classified participants with no lifetime drug use and no or low-risk alcohol use as "low risk" and fitted latent class models among remaining participants to identify additional substance use patterns. We used multinomial logistic regression to examine factors associated with substance use patterns. Results Among 602 participants, 265 (44.0%) were "low risk". Latent class analysis among the remaining 337 identified three patterns: "higher-risk alcohol use" (N=168; 27.9%), "cannabis use" (universal cannabis use with mixed alcohol risk; N=114; 18.9%), and "mixed illicit drug use" (predominantly no or low-risk alcohol use with use of multiple drugs; N=55; 9.1%). Participants younger than 45 years were less likely to be in the low-risk group. Male sex was associated with lower probability of the low-risk group and higher probability of the higher-risk alcohol use and cannabis use classes. HIV was associated with higher probability of higher-risk alcohol use. One facility had a substantially higher probability of mixed illicit drug use. Conclusions We identified distinct higher-risk substance use profiles that varied strongly by age, sex, and facility. These findings support integrating alcohol and substance use screening and management into primary care and tailoring responses to local substance use patterns.

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Trends in transitions in cigarette and electronic nicotine vapor product use in the Rutgers Omnibus Study, 2022-2026

Roberts, O. K.; Bover Manderski, M. T.; Gonsalves, N. J.; Jeon, J.; Meza, R.; Delnevo, C. D.; Brouwer, A. F.

2026-09-29 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.09.28.26364207 medRxiv
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Introduction: Monitoring transitions in cigarette and electronic nicotine vapor product (ENVP) use is important for understanding how marketplace and regulatory changes have affected product use patterns, but information from national surveys is often delayed by several years. Methods: The Rutgers Omnibus Study is a quarterly serial, rapid-response, web-based convenience survey. Using a Markov multistate transition model, we estimated transition rates and one-year transition probabilities between never, non-current, ENVP-only, cigarette-only, and dual use among 5,292 adults aged 18-45 who participated in at least two of Waves 1-16 (February 2022-February 2026), as well as overall transition hazard ratios by sex, age group, and race & ethnicity in a multivariable model. Results: About 40% of individuals using cigarettes (39.5%; 95% CI: 36.9-42.0) or ENVP (40.1%; 95% CI: 36.4-43.7), and 60% of those using both products (60.8%; 95% CI: 58.3-63.2) were predicted to remain in those states after one year. Female participants began using cigarettes from never use (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.44; 95% CI: 0.29-0.66) or non-current use (aHR 0.65; 95% CI: 0.48-0.88) at lower rates than male participants. Participants aged 35-45 years initiated ENVP-only use from non-current use (aHR 0.34; 95% CI: 0.23-0.51) at a lower rate than those aged 18-34 years. Compared to non-Hispanic White participants, non-Hispanic Black participants initiated ENVP-only use from never use at a higher rate (aHR 4.39; 95% CI: 2.09-9.25). Conclusion: Rapid response surveys can provide important preliminary information on tobacco use transition patterns while we wait for the slower release of nationally representative survey data.